Debris Flow Run-Out Prediction Based on the Shallow-Water Flow Numerical Model—A Case Study of Xulong Gully

Here we present a method for predicting debris flow run-out based on numerical model shallow water flows, using case study conducted Xulong Gully, proposed dam site hydropower station in the upper reaches of Jinsha River. A field investigation and remote sensing interpretation methods were used to develop comprehensive evaluation zones calculate potential provenance volume Gully. Particle-size analysis was early fan Gully determine rheological properties materials. flows constructed finite verify fluid motion across complex terrain explore range with various volumes. The showed that total less than two million m3, impact area would remain within However, if is more flush out into River, blocking portion river. If all flushed out, maximum velocity generated be 11 m/s thickness at estuary about 28.8 m. completely block 470 m